I’m going to reiterate something up front that I said in the Bullets, but which I think provides really important context for all discussions of what contract Alex Bregman may or may not be able to get in free agency: Alex Bregman’s deal with the Red Sox was not “three years and $120 million, for a $40 million AAV.” It was massively deferred, and the ACTUAL VALUE – as calculated for official luxury tax purposes – was three years and just $95 million, for a $31.7 million AAV. That’s a big difference!

Now a year older and heading into his age-32 season, after having a very good year with the Red Sox, but which was dramatically shortened by injury (missed almost 50 games), Bregman hits free agency again after opting out. I keep seeing projections and predictions that have him BLOWING AWAY the three-year, $95 million deal he got last year from the Red Sox, and I really have trouble squaring it. The lack of a Qualifying Offer can explain, oh, $10 to $15 million of the difference, but then again, a year of aging is generally worth a LOT more than that.

Full Story (via Brett Taylor):

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