Cubs Questions and Thoughts on Caleb Williams' Pro Day

With Opening Day right around the corner, let's try to answer some questions about the 2024 Cubs. Plus, the Bears were in Southern California on Wednesday for Caleb Williams' Pro Day.

We’re a week away from Opening Day for the Cubs. Here are a few questions regarding the 2024 team. Plus, Caleb Williams was as good as advertised on Wednesday at USC’s Pro Day.

What will Craig Counsell’s rotation look like, and how much does Shōta Imanaga impact it?

As I mentioned yesterday, I expect Craig Counsell to be creative with his rotation, specifically regarding rest days and how frequently he deploys a sixth starter to achieve that goal.

Counsell has said this spring that he plans on trying to get his starters five days rest between starts but noted that he isn’t doing it because of Imanaga. He did this regularly in Milwaukee, and he’s just continuing that here.

Speaking of Imanaga, how will he handle the transition to Major League Baseball?

Shōta Imanaga was stellar in Japan last season, posting a 2.66 ERA, a 1.02 WHIP, and 188 strikeouts in 148 innings. That performance led to a four-year, $53 million deal with the Cubs this offseason (that could reach $80 million).

But how will Imanaga adapt to pitching against MLB hitters?

His Cactus League starts have indicated what I think his regular season will look like: Some good, some great, and some adjustment (that might look ugly at times).

In his first Cactus League start, he allowed three runs on three hits while striking out five Dodgers hitters in 2.1 innings. His next start was a little better. He struck out five and allowed three runs on four hits in 3.0 innings against the Seattle Mariners. In his third start, he dominated the Oakland A’s, allowing zero runs on three hits while striking out nine and walking none in 4.1 innings.

There's an adjustment period like many pitchers who move from Japan to the States. Mets pitcher Kodai Senga found immediate success last year, pitching to a 2.98 ERA with 202 strikeouts in 166.1 innings.

Imanaga’s pitching profile is that of a fly-ball pitcher who can miss bats. He’s got an advantage over opposing hitters this season, that being unfamiliarity. There’s limited tape on Imanaga for opposing hitters.

Fangraphs’ ZiPS projections have Imanaga projected to post a 3.55 ERA with 146 strikeouts in 137 innings, which seems right across the board.

Will year two with the Cubs be better for Jameson Taillon?

We sure hope so, right? Taillon inked a four-year, $68 million deal with the Cubs last offseason and began his Cubs tenure with a 4.84 ERA and 4.61 FIP in 154.1 innings of work.

He couldn’t have gotten off to a worse start with the Cubs, posting a 6.93 ERA in his first 14 starts with Chicago. The Cubs lost 12 of his 14 starts, and opposing hitters owned a .870 OPS against him during that stretch.

The glass-half-full: Taillon posted a 3.38 ERA in his final 16 starts with the Cubs last season. So, he got much better as the season wore on.

Taillon is now dealing with a back issue that will likely result in an IL stint to open the season. Still, there’s plenty of reason to believe that his second-half success last year, some offseason work that featured mechanical tweaks, and some time working with the pitching development team at Driveline should result in a much better second season with the Cubs.

One Cubs prospect that caught my eye this spring …

Ben Brown. He was terrific this spring, posting a 0.90 ERA in 10 innings of work while striking out nine hitters. He allowed only eight hits, and none of them left the ballpark.

Brown relies heavily on his four-seam fastball and slider, which were both terrific last season in Triple-A. According to Fangraphs, Brown’s four-seamer had a Stuff+ of 105, and his slider had a Stuff+ rating of 137. Stuff+ is weighted like wRC+, where 100 is the league average, higher is better, and lower is worse. If you’re unfamiliar with it, Stuff+ looks at a pitch's physical characteristics, including release point, velocity, vertical and horizontal movement, and spin rate.

Even more impressive in Triple-A has been Brown’s less frequently used, but still one of his primary pitches, his sweeper. Brown’s sweeper (which he threw 93 times) has a Stuff+ rating of 172. That’s in the ballpark of double the league average rating. Nuts.

The only thing holding Brown back right now is his ability to locate the nasty trio of pitches. Brown’s 94 and 95 Location+ on the four-seamer and slider are slightly below average, and his sweeper (102) is just a tick above league average.

If he can figure out how to command those pitches, he’ll have success at the major league level.

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Caleb Williams Shines at USC Pro Day

Caleb Williams ended his 50-throw script today by uncorking an effortless deep ball down the middle of the field for a completion with Chicago Bears head coach Matt Eberflus standing behind him, grinning ear-to-ear.

Pro Days are a t-shirt and shorts workout, and to me, what we can discern from them is mechanics. NFL Media’s Bucky Brooks compared the throwing drills at a Pro Day to a free throw line in basketball. What does the player look like going through the basics?

For Caleb Williams, many (inaccurately) question the basics because he has so much extraordinary on tape, especially in 2023. On Wednesday, Williams made the basics look easy.

His dropbacks were clean and well-paced, and his throws were on target. The ball exploded out of his hand and got on his receivers quickly with little effort, and there was plenty of touch whenever necessary. Out of the 50 throws, only a handful weren’t perfect, and only a few hit the turf.

USC’s staff kept him in the pocket, which everyone wanted to see today. He took 60 percent of his throws from the shotgun and the other 40 percent from under center, and he worked all sides of the field and all depths of targets. Many Pro Day throwing sessions focus on one side of the field, but not this one.

He made the pedestrian look just that, and, of course, he drew cheers from the onlookers with effortless deep balls, hitting his receivers in stride most of the time.

My biggest takeaway from Wednesday was the calmness. Williams was cool and collected throughout and barely broke a sweat. And yes, running 50 plays, scripted or not, is sweat-worthy. He was calm, interacted well with his coaches and teammates, and smiled throughout.

A Pro Day for a potential No. 1 pick should be a walk in the park, and it was just that for Williams on Wednesday.

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  • New Chicago Bears wide receiver Keenan Allen was among the Bears' contingent at Williams’ Pro Day on Wednesday.

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Chicago Blackhawks

  • Tab talks about Kevin Korchinski and his struggles this season:

Chicago Bulls

  • Coby White is trending in the right direction for tonight’s game!

What’s on deck?

  • The Cubs take on the Rockies today at 3:10 PM CT. You can watch the game on Marquee.

  • The Bulls are in Houston to take on the Rockets at 7:00 PM CT on NBC Sports Chicago.

  • The Blackhawks continue their West Coast swing tonight against the Ducks in Anaheim. Puck drop is set for 9:00 PM CT, and you can watch the game on NBC Sports Chicago Plus.