Why Seiya Suzuki is Primed for a Monster Season

Happy Opening Day!

We’ve finally arrived. The Cubs take on the Rangers tonight at 6:35 PM CT, with Justin Steele opposing Nathan Eovaldi on the bump.

I told you yesterday that I picked Seiya Suzuki as one of my breakout candidates for this season and would explain how a 3.2 fWAR player in 2023 could be considered a “breakout candidate” in Saturday’s installment of The Stretch.

I will do that, but I’m also going to include that section of the column here today for subscribers to the BN Newsletter. I appreciate you all and want to give you early access to that, but I also want this on the record before Opening Day because I’ve got a really good feeling about this one.

But first, Michael put together some Cubs bets for today, and I will share those here for those who partake.

Here’s What I’m Betting on the Cubs for Opening Day (via Michael Cerami)

Justin Steele: Under 5.5 Strikeouts

DraftKings: Justin Steele Under 5.5 Ks, -125

Justin Steele made 30 starts last season and struck fewer than six batters only 12 times. However, eight of those 12 games came before the end of May, including one start against the Texas Rangers (whose lineup looks pretty similar), when he totaled just 3Ks in his 6.0 innings of work. I'm still expecting a great game and season overall from Steele, but it wouldn't surprise me if he's not at his absolute (strikeout) sharpest early in the year and against the reigning World Series champs.

And for what it's worth, the Rangers struck out just 21.9% of the time against southpaws all of last season.

Cubs to Win

FanDuel: Cubs Moneyline +104

Be warned, I bet with my heart as much as my head. And I don't have it in me to bet against the Cubbies on Opening Day, especially when they're betting underdogs. With that said, I like the Cubs lineup a good bit more than the industry. And we've seen first-hand how the World Series hangover can affect a team. With Justin Steele on the mound, Seiya Suzuki coming off a red-hot spring, and all the Cubs regulars healthy and ready to go, I'm feeling good about the Cubs’ chances. It's on the road against a good team, but hey ... +104 isn't bad.

Seiya Suzuki to Homer

BetMGM: Seiya Suzuki Over 0.5 HRs +650

I'm such a homer for this bet, but I can't help it. Seiya Suzuki had a red-hot Spring Training, including six homers and a .459/.512/1.081 (307 wRC+) slash line. And that's after finishing the season on an absolute tear. Nathan Eovaldi (starting for the Rangers) isn't much of a fly ball pitcher and isn't particularly home run-prone, but he does give up more homers and hard contact against righties. And at +650, you can make a tiny bet but still earn some cash. It's never easy to pick a guy to homer, but the payoffs are big, and the bet is fun.

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All right, onto Seiya’s impending breakout season …